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this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2024
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The SECOND Russia uses nukes, it's OVER. Russia's entire existence ceases to exist, as EVERY country will nuke Russia. It won't be WWIII.
WWIII would imply two set of countries of roughly equal might, and each side has several countries fighting together.
This would be more like EVERYBODY vs Russia. And they wouldn't last more than a few days.
The problem is Russia has the very real capability of really screwing up a good chunk of the world before they get wiped off the map. It's kind of scary if im being honest.
I would have believed you a few years ago.
At this point I think Putin has to have serious doubts that he could use a nuke and have it actually work. He's up against both western tech and his own corruption.
Yeah the problem is he only needs one to work. Even if it's a dud Russia being nuked into oblivion will have long term ramifications for the entire globe
We don't have to Nuke Moscow, to effectively nuke Moscow. We invented the MOAB just to be able to do that. They have to rely on the dirty version.
Yeah but it might humble the rest of the world a bit. No one will want to be next.
Do they really?
They made a lot of claims about their military capabilities. However their war with Ukraine has shown those to largely be lies propped up to hide that their oligarchs have emezzled the money.
I'm starting to wonder how nuclear capable they actually are these days.
Of all the things Russia has spent money on, I have no doubts they have kept most of their nuclear arsenal in working condition. Even if they spent $0 on their military they would find a way to keep the nukes in working order.
Nukes and ICBMs are extremely complex devices. They also require extremely specialist servi e work to remain functional. Even worse, the only people who can actually check that work are the ones doing it.
Russia hasn't detonated a nuke in decades. I wouldn't be surprised if most of their arsenal are now duds. The money embezzled, while boxes were ticked. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if many of their ICBMs just wouldn't launch.
Russia's nuclear capabilities are likely a paper tiger, and Putin likely knows this. Until they try and use them, they are scary. If they try and they fail, they are in a VERY bad situation.
Putin is many things, but he's not stupid. It would take a LOT more pressure from nato for him to even consider using nukes.
It's kind of funny to me that a significant reason Russia is in its current predicament is because of rampant corruption. Putin runs the country like a Mafia state and then gets all surprised Pikachu Face when it becomes apparent that his underlings just stole all the money instead of using it to maintain their weapons stockpile, which is now aging and dilapidated.
Yeah, he knows we’re doubting his capacity and isn’t doing underground detonations
Uhh, maybe 2 decades ago, they sold all those weapons on Wish.com, where do you think all those super-yachts came from?
I think even China and India would sever any remaining ties to russia if russia uses a nuke.
They would, as Russia is only a useful idiot and a link to natural resources for both of those countries.
China would just wait until it's over and then pick through the remains of Russia. Probably try to claim a big chunk of southern Russia using some excuse or another.
Well it's not ~~southern Russia's~~ northern China's fault that some mad man in Moscow used a nuke. China will just be generous and help lead the clean up in wonderful north north China.
Ehh. They'd make a beeline for every natural resource bearing region inside Russia's borders. The whole south-western Russian region will turn into a clusterfuck free for all that I doubt they'd want to get involved with, but any mining and oil/gas centers east of the Urals will be priority one.
Empty land is not terribly useful for China right now, although large portions of siberia will likely become arable in the next 50 years. but the dragon is always hungry.
China would be dealing with nuclear radiation fallout across much of its country.
Unless they are dropping ground detonations there wouldn't me much. Most nuclear detonation would be airbursts because it's more destructive than a ground blast. Ground blasts cause major fallout.
If Russia uses their nukes, about 30 minuites later there won't be a Russia left to sever ties with.
Nato will write a sternly worded letter. Biden will SLAM putin for it. The EU will try to pass chat control.
I don't think that everyone is ready to cry right after reading this comment. Pls delete
Ironically Biden was the one who knew Russia would attack Ukraine and spent MONTHS preparing Ukraine for it, which is why it wasn’t over in 3 days. We have also prepped for nuclear escalation. This is what real leaders do. Trump would just continue to give Putin a blow job.
it would be over for everyone
I better start eating people now so I can be a good cannibal in the wastelands
Beware of microplastics.
Way ahead of you
We don’t need to nuke them even, we can just use conventional munitions to fuck up every military installation they have to rubble.
And chuck a few Tomahawks at Kremlin to be sure
Unless the nuclear fallout is proven to effect a NATO ally and trigger Article 5, no one would give a shit if Russia nuked itself on its own territory. And no one other than the US can afford to unleash all of their their nuclear arsenal, costing billions of dollars and their only defense deterrence, in one go to light the powder keg and be left without nukes to defend themselves.
However, you are correct, Russia would cease to exist if they retaliated disproportionately and a single molecule of NATO territory was effected as a result.
OK, I genuinely have no clue what got that post removed. If you're gonna have your own magic dictionary of what's allowed then you're gonna need to let people know what are and are not the special "no-no" words. It wasn't even an edgy comment, it was just calling out the Russian bullshit, or was that the issue? Gotta protect the Russian shills or something?
The fact that it's Russia substantially increases this possibility.
I do not share your confidence about that.
Countries with nuclear weapons include China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and possibly Iran. And while I don't think any of them want a nuclear war, if a nuclear war breaks out, I can imagine three or four of them siding with Russia.
China might side with Russia simply because they're sick of the US trying to hem them in militarily through the "island chain" strategy. The US has the entire coast of China surrounded by military bases, which could be used to cut off China's trade routes, which is an existential threat to China because their economy is so dependent on exports.
North Korea has a historical beef with the US, and Russia helped North Korea survive through a period when the US tried to starve them.
India and Pakistan have a long-running dispute over Kashmir, and if India backs the US, it's possibly Pakistan will back Russia just to oppose India.
And Russia and Iran have been solid military and economic allies for a while now, working together in recent conflicts in Syria and Iraq.
If their intelligence agencies are worth anything, they would understand that any action unless directly against Russia would be suicide not only for them but also us. Nukes are a losing strategy no matter what.
What is it with you people?!?!
"it's not fair that the US DARES to talk to other countries anywhere near us!?!?"
This is the exact same excuse putin used for invading Ukraine, because no country is allowed to make their own decisions on who they talk to unless Russia and China get a veto.
We have power they cannot begin to comprehend, they need to learn a lesson from Putin, "Don't start nothin, won't be nothin", because if there's one thing the US is famous for, it's ending wars definitively.
I don't believe that's what I said.
Nuclear politics trump geopolitics.
https://youtu.be/v4mZPc_kkys