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Hey Dems, stop doomscrolling and go win the election (www.washingtonpost.com)

submitted 2 months ago by dragontamer@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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Despite all the doom scrolling, Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

The time for vibing is over. It's too late to change anyone's opinions (especially because national level events like debates are over). Harris will finish her Media Blitz soon (including a Fox News showing) while Trump retreats into his shell hoping no one notices how damn stupid his mouth is.

This is the time for doing. The focus should be on voter drives and other get out the vote pushes. It's mid October, and the October surprises are against Trump and in our favor.

It's not the lead we wanted but it's a lead nonetheless. Don't talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two.

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[-] OhStopYellingAtMe@lemmy.world 105 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

She will only win if you vote. Do not say “she’s got this, I’ll skip it.” Do not say “I can’t bring myself to vote for her.” Do not say “something something genocide.” Vote. For. Her.

Because if you don’t, he will win. And you’ll still get the genocide, plus so much other even worse shit.

[-] Orbituary@lemmy.world 50 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

She doesn't "got this." The election is too close for logic or comfort.

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[-] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 78 points 2 months ago

I can't vote anymore... I already did!

[-] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 32 points 2 months ago

“playing by the rules? That’s why dems lose!!!”- some ass.

[-] MeatsOfRage@lemmynsfw.com 22 points 2 months ago

I've decided not to vote at all in this US election. I know my vote won't do anything on account of being Canadian.

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[-] A_Filthy_Weeaboo@lemmy.world 13 points 2 months ago

I'm registered and raring to go. I even have the day off, so I'm going. (I've voted in every single election)

Don't vote? Then you don't get to complain or criticize.

[-] Cadeillac@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago

(I've voted in every single election)

How old are you??

[-] Furball@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 months ago

About 300 years old it seems

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[-] cybervseas@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago

You know what they say, "Vote early. Vote often."

[-] gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works 15 points 2 months ago

But like, actually do. Because there are a shitload of elections and state + local really matters too.

[-] cabbage@piefed.social 7 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

The fascists must be defeated at every level. It's like treating cancer. The problem is not over before it's all gone. And even then there's a risk of it returning.

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[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 49 points 2 months ago

Take action today! If nothing else it will help with anxiety

Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

[-] linuxfiend@fedia.io 43 points 2 months ago

I will only be comfortable after she's inaugurated.

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[-] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 42 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I'm having trouble equating Harris's marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.

When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators' judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.

From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her "a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight."

Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.

[-] AmidFuror@fedia.io 14 points 2 months ago

Thanks for all the doom scrolling links.

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[-] Kolanaki@yiffit.net 31 points 2 months ago

I already mailed in my ballot. I can doomscroll all I want until next election.

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago

You managed to Vote Early, but you have completely skipped the bit on Voting Often.

[-] Kolanaki@yiffit.net 26 points 2 months ago

They won't let me vote multiple times because I'm not a Republican :(

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[-] mlg@lemmy.world 25 points 2 months ago

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

2016 DNC Campaign literally moments before disaster.

I just came from the utterly brain dead "Harris cares about Gaza" meme post , so I can safely start labeling posts like these as hopium and accepting the status quo.

People really out here thinking the money from the biggest PAC is gonna both allow the dems to win and somehow convince them to actually pass significant legislation to improve literally anything for the middle class beyond token handouts and continuing to repair what Trump destroyed in like only 3 months of hime being in office.

Dunno how Republican turnout is gonna be, but Democrats are about to get a kick in the nuts from all the constituents they willingly chose to ignore. Might still win, but thinking it's going to be easy is a false hope.

[-] modifier@lemmy.ca 10 points 2 months ago

I don't think anyone is under the illusion this will be easy. Winning will be hard enough but even then there will be massive hurdles to actually being inaugurated.

[-] WoahWoah@lemmy.world 23 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Harris doesn't have a comfortable lead in the EC, what are you talking about? Even your own posted article says she's within the margin of error nationally, and the race is closer in the swing states than in the national polls. That's by definition not a "comfortable lead."

Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.

Two different polls in the last two days have flipped two swing states over to Trump. Nate Silver's polling aggregator reflect the many, many polls that have shown Trump gaining in multiple swing states. Silver's projections reflect this by indicating a six point drop for Harris to win the EC since the end of September.

Optimism is fine, hopium is not. No high quality polling shows Harris with a "comfortable lead" in the electoral college.

These "don't worry be happy" posts seem like they're coming straight from the Trump campaign. Harris has a comfortable lead, I guess I don't have to worry! Even if you say "but you have to vote," the psychological effect of denying the state of the race with hopium like this is to make people feel less concerned and more complacent about voting.

[-] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago

Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.

The magic of the Electoral College. 2024 is expected to get even worse, as states like California and Texas lean harder left than at any point in recent history, but California can't yield any more EC votes than it already does and Texas Dems will still be a point or two shy of winning the state under the most Dem-leaning models.

Swing states are all that matter. And once they've swung far enough (as in the case of Virginia and Colorado and Florida) they stop mattering again.

Optimism is fine, hopium is not.

Be an optimist. Be a pessimist. It doesn't matter. The folks with the biggest thumbs on the scales are mega-donors, media magnets, and the majorities on various state and federal courts. At some point, you have to realize that your vote matters far less than there's. It's a rich man's country, we just live in it.

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[-] Asafum@feddit.nl 22 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I was incredibly happy to be able to vote by mail, I really hope that gets expanded! It was wonderful to be able to sit down and look up all the people I didn't know about and read more about the propositions on the ballot and then make my decision. Just popped it in the mailbox on my way out to work and that was it! Easy easy.

Also: "Don’t talk yourself out of believing this lead because of a bad poll or two."

Stop reading my comments Washington Post!! :P

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[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 21 points 2 months ago

It's not comfortable until she hits 270...

[-] Valmond@lemmy.world 12 points 2 months ago

That's a tad old for a president

[-] dragonfucker@lemmy.nz 5 points 2 months ago

It's a weight, not an age. Jordan is talking about their preference in romantic partners

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[-] vxx@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

I wouldn't count that comfortable in this election. Get her to 200 and the election deniers will have less fuel.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Thanks for reminding me to vote today!

[-] lolola@lemmy.blahaj.zone 14 points 2 months ago

Not gonna lie... the headline got me to finally get around to donating.

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[-] Tillyrblue@lemmy.world 14 points 2 months ago

I’ve been canvassing twice so far. The second time I wasn’t able to talk to anyone, but hopefully I will next time.

[-] usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml 6 points 2 months ago

Nice, keep up the canavassing!

One thing I was told is that ringing the doorbell a second time after waiting a bit can increase the response rate. I haven't tried it myself but was told by a couple of people that it helped a good amount

It can also just varies a lot day to day and location to location on the response rate. Some days more people answer the door, others day it seems emptier

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[-] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago

We got our ballots here in Colorado area. I plan on researching the ballot measures and filling it out on my leisure, then dropping it off.

God, I love this state! When some dipshit like dementia donnie trashes this great state of ours, it sure does anger me. Every state should have this option for voting, as a for instance.

Get out there and vote, people (or fill out your ballot and mail/drop it off if you have the option)! Like your life depends on it.

[-] Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

It’s too late to change anyone’s opinions

James Comey has entered the chat

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[-] Voyajer@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago

Waiting for my ballot to arrive.

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this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024

492 points (92.7% liked)

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