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Harris won this ~~district~~ county by .7% in the presidential election. This candidate won by a little more, but special elections / off year elections, the party out of power usually gets a little bump.

Looks like this candidate won by 2.3%. So good sign, but you’d think that wars ICE murders would be worth more than 1.6%

Edit: county, not district.

Let's see: There's them saying ICE will be at polling stations, there's the SAVE act, there's the war in Iran which Trump believes can stop elections, there's always the classic Insurrection Act and Martial Law, there's them claiming 2020 was stolen and therefore federalizing the election process. And then the redistricting, ending Mail In Voting, gerrymandering, threats, Dominion voting machines now being owned by a MAGA former election official.

All of that and people still think we're having free elections?

It's one sign, but there have been many others. Something like 28 MAGA seats have flipped to Democrats in special elections, while no Democrat seats have flipped. MAGA can't buy a win.

Yesterday, the Dems flipped Trump's own district. Some are saying it was indies, not MAGAs, or the MAGAs didn't vote, or nobody votes in these special elections, yadda-yadda, but the bottom line is:

Trump's own home district flipped from MAGA to Democrat, in a decisive win in which his own wealthy neighbors voted AGAINST him. That's YUGE.

I just mailed my overseas vote for my state's primary. Super red and heavily gerymandered, but not much else I can do. We at least had one progressive on the dem ballot whose site (at least until recently) said "Fuck Ice" so that's hopeful.

I don't see any republican ever voting democrat, most of them seem too far gone into the echo chambers, which just keep growing and growing as they consolidate the media.

The only thing that may still break that path is the Iran war jacking gas prices so high that a substantial number of MAGAs abstain out of rage, otherwise goodbye America.

I'm wondering if poly market has odds for the US breaking up like the USSR in the next decade

I think that's partially, perhaps mostly, true, but I think a lot of MAGAs are just fed up. He's going to try to make a case for a third term, and there will be a lot of MAGA resistance. We are at the stage where they are starting to think about a post-Trump MAGA, and he's starting to be a liability.

Right now, MAGA is a classic cult of personality, and they have to figure out how to transition it into a viable political party with the same blind cult-like loyalty, but without the "personality."

If they want MAGA to continue beyond his term, and become a viable political party separate from him, they can't allow it to get so bad that it eventually gets prohibited as a National Security Threat (which should absolutely happen). They will want to mainstream it, and that means avoiding Trump's worst instincts.

A current example is how he is losing his precious SAVE Act, because his own MAGAs won't pass it. I'm sure part of it is because it is stupid and short-sighted, but part of it probably because they don't want to do anything that will make it easier for him to continue in office beyond his term. They've had enough.

Getting Independents wins elections. How it's always been and how it always will be until we get rid of FPTP.

The don't care about the diddling. It got personal when gas hit $5.

It doesn't matter. Florida used to be evenly split, but Trump made Florida into MAGA HQ, and a million MAGA Traitors/Pedophiles moved here and skewed the entire electorate right. Besides, Florida elections have been fully rigged since 2000. No Democrat wins unless the MAGAs allow it, in a few districts, just for appearances.

The last Democratic stronghold in Florida, the Central Region around Orlando and the I-4 corridor, has been under attack by DeSantis for years, yanking duly elected politicians out of office for lame reasons, and replacing them with his own hand-picked stooges.

One replaced prosecutor, Monique Worrell, was yanked soon after her election, and replaced with a stooge, who did a terrible job, so she ran for re-election, and not only won with 2/3 of the pissed off voters, but DeSatan's private stooge lost his own primary against another Republican, tried to run as an Independent, and got crushed in embarrassing and humiliating fashion.

He's also replaced the local sheriff and police chief with guys who have long histories in immigration enforcement, in one of the biggest middle-class Hispanic populations in the nation.

The local sheriff got arrested for supposedly acting as protection for a "massive" $20 million gambling operation, that was so secret they registered their corporation with the state, had a "casino" full of colorful lighted gambling machines behind plate glass windows that were totally visible to the most high traffic main drag through town, and put lots of videos on Instagram and other Social Media. Clearly they weren't worried about keeping it quiet, almost as though they thought it was LEGAL. And why wouldn't it be? They have operations like that all over Florida!

But they arrested the sheriff, letting one of the local news channels in on it, so there would be footage. I was already suspicious about the entire thing, then the absolute corruption of it was driven home when I was watching the breathless pearl-clutching coverage of this MASSIVE $20 MILLION GAMBLING OPERATION® and they cut to a commercial...for the Hard Rock Casino, the massive multi-BILLION dollar operation 45 minutes up the highway. Nobody is gasping and pearl-clutching over them.

Then they kept the sheriff locked up, and denied him bail, then they locked up his wife, and denied her bail, as if they were child rapists and murderers. That meant that they couldn't tell their side of the story, while DeSatan and his operatives were spewing their propaganda on the news all day, every day.

Very little of this was covered in Florida news, other than locally, and what there was was definitely from the administration's side. I've seen and heard literally NOTHING from any national media about DeSatan's attacks on Central Florida, not even talk about him removing fairly elected Democrats, and replacing them with his hand-picked loyalists. The Democratic Party certainly didn't come to their defense.

This should be one of the biggest stories in the nation, and literally nobody outside of Central Florida knows it's going on, and it's been happening for YEARS.

Not sick enough, one 51% of the vote. That means half the people there still like it.

She performed 1.6% better than Harris, who also won that district. It’s a bump, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable if wars, ICE raids, expensive healthcare, election rigging and inflation was worth more than a 1.6% bump.

Especially since the party in power usually has lower turnout in off year elections.

Each one is a battle. The illusion of momentum is dangerous.

Trump’s the kind of huy who will just walk in and kick over the entire domino run and brag about it though.

I mean, it is from one perspective.

A lot of the population seems to be unable to perceive the obvious results from certain policies. Actually having it happen and dealing with consequences is the only way they seem to realize what they were told would happen was true.