Canada

It looks more to me like being anti-Trudeau/incumbent correlates with youth. You'll notice they're also the top NDP group in these results.

Most young people just aren't political, and those that are are mostly left-leaning in my bubble. It's just hard to picture most of them complaining about wokeism or whatever.

Many are angry, so they blame the guy that’s been around for the last decade. They are too young to remember what Stephen Harper did and don’t seem interested in figuring it out.

That's an Americanism. Canadian boomers aren't as malignantly conservative.

Try watching YouTube with a new email and watch your suggestions. If you watch a single right wing video that is all you will ever get.

Same with tiktok and Instagram.

Also young men aren't interested in secondary education, they're having trouble with jobs, women don't want to date then due to their right wing views, so they're doubling down even further.

Alt-right pipeline is alive and flourishing. Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block if you can't. Try not to feed the trolls, and Godspeed!

E: can to can't

Their more progressive parents should've tried parenting.

The one Canadian MAGA in my family is my younger cousin. He had some rough economic and health times and the latter affected his cognitive ability. I feel really bad for him but he’s a true PP believer even through this.

A lot of people are going to tell you that "it's the algorithm", and there's some truth to that, but honestly I think it's a lot more straightforward:

The boomers got everything, and when they burned through that, they burned through the millennials' share too. If you're growing up a zoomer, you're looking around at a world literally on fire, and the emergence of what is effectively feudalism as the dominant world ~~religion~~ economic system. You'll never own a home, because literally everything is rented now. You're probably working 2 jobs, though they barely qualify for that word because there's zero security and you're carrying all the risk.

You're watching a literal genocide playing out on your phone, while the outgoing Trudeau proudly declares himself a Zionist, and literally everything is expensive, especially food.

Now, consider the political climate:

• The NDP (and to a greater extent, the entire global left) is toothless and obsessing over identity politics, and if you tell your friends you're going to vote for them you're either laughed at or told you're "wasting" your vote.
• The Liberals are refusing to recognise the dire state of the economy and the fear & frustration you have. Instead they go on TV and say that the problem with the economy is "vibes" and that voting for Conservatives means you hate gay people.
• The Conservatives acknowledge that fear and frustration. They don't gaslight you with claims that "the stocks are up, so the economy is fine". No, they cast blame: "Trudeau did this. He torched the economy for 'wokeism'. He put on silly costumes with foreign dignitaries while you had to move back in with your parents. He did this. Him, and those immigrants, and if you vote for us, we'll get rid of all of that".

They've got the best story, and their opposition is either inept or oblivious. If they hadn't made the mistake of cozying up to Trump, they'd be a shoe-in for the next election.

Other recent polls have put the Liberals in the lead, but not by this much. Time will tell if it's just a bit ahead of the curve or a true outlier.

At this moment in time, this is the way.

From the article:

The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in our parallel Probit survey).

He's an Edmonton kid. Albertans like Albertans. Here's hoping we see this keep climbing.

EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.

It's also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn't. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.

This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see "Handling Trump" as their top priority right now, with "The Economy" in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he's seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump's actions.

However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.