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Carney, Carney, he's our man, if he can't do it no one can
I'm baffled by the correlation of age and support of conservatives. How is their top demo the youngest one?
Is social media / podcast bro brainrot really outdoing the common trope of getting more conservative with age?
It looks more to me like being anti-Trudeau/incumbent correlates with youth. You'll notice they're also the top NDP group in these results.
Most young people just aren't political, and those that are are mostly left-leaning in my bubble. It's just hard to picture most of them complaining about wokeism or whatever.
Many are angry, so they blame the guy that’s been around for the last decade. They are too young to remember what Stephen Harper did and don’t seem interested in figuring it out.
That's definitely a big part of it, but the alt-right pipeline/manosphere shit is real and out of control in western/American social media. Things are pretty hellish right now economy-wise all over and all the social media algorithms are perfectly tuned to push "solutions" or out-groups to blame for it all.
It's like if you don't already have a political leaning to purposely influence your feed, everything is now setup to push you down a far right wing path where everything is the fault of women, LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, etc.
I think that is correct. Also, if you are looking for boogeymen, the immigration rings true as a problem for young people because Canada legit did go a bit too crazy and especially with International students. If you are young, and every school and workforce you are competing for is suddenly stuffed with foreigners, it sounds like the conservatives are right. That makes it easier to accept that they are right about house prices, climate, other social issues, etc.
More importantly, you don’t have to believe the conservatives, you just have to be mad at the Liberals for being in power as long as you can remember and screwing it up.
Changing leaders gives the Liberals a chance to also be a “new” team.
That's an Americanism. Canadian boomers aren't as malignantly conservative.
Try watching YouTube with a new email and watch your suggestions. If you watch a single right wing video that is all you will ever get.
Same with tiktok and Instagram.
Also young men aren't interested in secondary education, they're having trouble with jobs, women don't want to date then due to their right wing views, so they're doubling down even further.
Alt-right pipeline is alive and flourishing. Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block if you can't. Try not to feed the trolls, and Godspeed!
E: can to can't
That can have pitfalls itself, can't it? If I knew someone who was going down that path I'd worry about it feeling like I'm policing them rather than valuing and supporting them.
Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block of you can
Are you advocating to block loved ones if their mental health is too far gone or am I misreading this?
Good catch, meant to say "don't block if you can" we need them to see our side. I'll update my op.
And to add context, this is a waiting game. I'm hopeful the factions align under progressive libs before cons. We all want a better place, we gotta keep moving forward. Regression is bad mkay
Their more progressive parents should've tried parenting.
The one Canadian MAGA in my family is my younger cousin. He had some rough economic and health times and the latter affected his cognitive ability. I feel really bad for him but he’s a true PP believer even through this.
A lot of people are going to tell you that "it's the algorithm", and there's some truth to that, but honestly I think it's a lot more straightforward:
The boomers got everything, and when they burned through that, they burned through the millennials' share too. If you're growing up a zoomer, you're looking around at a world literally on fire, and the emergence of what is effectively feudalism as the dominant world ~~religion~~ economic system. You'll never own a home, because literally everything is rented now. You're probably working 2 jobs, though they barely qualify for that word because there's zero security and you're carrying all the risk.
You're watching a literal genocide playing out on your phone, while the outgoing Trudeau proudly declares himself a Zionist, and literally everything is expensive, especially food.
Now, consider the political climate:
- The NDP (and to a greater extent, the entire global left) is toothless and obsessing over identity politics, and if you tell your friends you're going to vote for them you're either laughed at or told you're "wasting" your vote.
- The Liberals are refusing to recognise the dire state of the economy and the fear & frustration you have. Instead they go on TV and say that the problem with the economy is "vibes" and that voting for Conservatives means you hate gay people.
- The Conservatives acknowledge that fear and frustration. They don't gaslight you with claims that "the stocks are up, so the economy is fine". No, they cast blame: "Trudeau did this. He torched the economy for 'wokeism'. He put on silly costumes with foreign dignitaries while you had to move back in with your parents. He did this. Him, and those immigrants, and if you vote for us, we'll get rid of all of that".
They've got the best story, and their opposition is either inept or oblivious. If they hadn't made the mistake of cozying up to Trump, they'd be a shoe-in for the next election.
So who tells a tale that’s the strongest of all? The ones who cast blame and make others feel small. And if they weren’t friends with a man named Old Trump, They’d be winning not whining about current slumps.
and to a greater extent, the entire global left
Podemos in Spain has been successful, Mexico has a leftist president, Chile's Broad Front was born from student protests in 2011, Brazil has a leftist president and governing party. The NFP in France is the opposition.
You’ll never own a home
Gen Z has some of the highest home ownership rates given their age:
I think I saw that, but I have to take it with a grain of salt. Haven't there been other studies showing gen Z has been late to a lot of milestones?
One thing this could be is the minority of young people that have a house basically supplied by their parents, because of high inequality.
The oldest Gen Zer is what? 27? What milestones are they late to? Especially if they're early to home ownership.
Because they seem to be earlier to kids than millennials were, based on what I've heard, and marriage just seems to be a fundamentally different thing to many people born after GenX.
Well, there's also first job, moving out to a rental and getting into a serious career (the hustling from job to job is a killer for anyone without nepotism on their side). You're right that there's cultural changes in the picture too, though.
Because they seem to be earlier to kids than millennials were, based on what I’ve heard,
It looks like average age of a new mother has gone up continuously at least in the US, actually. Teen moms are a big part of it, though, which brings up the the mean vs. median thing again.
Even if the data on housing is correct, are the non-homeowners closer or further from owning? The typical real wage has gone down, and I see little evidence that's concentrated towards older individuals like it would have to be to not hit gen Z. Anecdotally, in my family the last generation had an easier time. It's almost painful adjusting their old starting wages for inflation.
I saw Liberals leading Alberta, which made me do a double take.
Then I read the small print. Yeah, keep your expectations in check it's not that hype.
Other recent polls have put the Liberals in the lead, but not by this much. Time will tell if it's just a bit ahead of the curve or a true outlier.
I support the NDP but I have moved somewhere with little chance of a seat going that way so more than likely I'll go for whichever party shows better chance of beating the conservative candidate.
At this moment in time, this is the way.
The liberal majority in Alberta is shocking. I never thought I'd see the day
From the article:
The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in our parallel Probit survey).
Everything about that sentence makes the statistician in me cry
Take anything Ekos post with a grain of salt please
338 posts updates every Sunday, I'm looking forward to seeing that one
He's an Edmonton kid. Albertans like Albertans. Here's hoping we see this keep climbing.
Wow that’s a HUGE rise. I wonder what other polling firms will show this week.
EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It's also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn't. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see "Handling Trump" as their top priority right now, with "The Economy" in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he's seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump's actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.
Hey, he's not a complete pushover, he put out a tweet (or an X?) confirming he's Canadian. He also changed "America" to "Canada" when he started reusing Trump's exact slogan. /s