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Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney
(www.ekospolitics.com)
Carney, Carney, he's our man, if he can't do it no one can
this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2025
298 points (98.7% liked)
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I'm baffled by the correlation of age and support of conservatives. How is their top demo the youngest one?
Is social media / podcast bro brainrot really outdoing the common trope of getting more conservative with age?
It looks more to me like being anti-Trudeau/incumbent correlates with youth. You'll notice they're also the top NDP group in these results.
Most young people just aren't political, and those that are are mostly left-leaning in my bubble. It's just hard to picture most of them complaining about wokeism or whatever.
Many are angry, so they blame the guy that’s been around for the last decade. They are too young to remember what Stephen Harper did and don’t seem interested in figuring it out.
That's definitely a big part of it, but the alt-right pipeline/manosphere shit is real and out of control in western/American social media. Things are pretty hellish right now economy-wise all over and all the social media algorithms are perfectly tuned to push "solutions" or out-groups to blame for it all.
It's like if you don't already have a political leaning to purposely influence your feed, everything is now setup to push you down a far right wing path where everything is the fault of women, LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, etc.
I think that is correct. Also, if you are looking for boogeymen, the immigration rings true as a problem for young people because Canada legit did go a bit too crazy and especially with International students. If you are young, and every school and workforce you are competing for is suddenly stuffed with foreigners, it sounds like the conservatives are right. That makes it easier to accept that they are right about house prices, climate, other social issues, etc.
More importantly, you don’t have to believe the conservatives, you just have to be mad at the Liberals for being in power as long as you can remember and screwing it up.
Changing leaders gives the Liberals a chance to also be a “new” team.
That's an Americanism. Canadian boomers aren't as malignantly conservative.
Try watching YouTube with a new email and watch your suggestions. If you watch a single right wing video that is all you will ever get.
Same with tiktok and Instagram.
Also young men aren't interested in secondary education, they're having trouble with jobs, women don't want to date then due to their right wing views, so they're doubling down even further.
Alt-right pipeline is alive and flourishing. Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block if you can't. Try not to feed the trolls, and Godspeed!
E: can to can't
That can have pitfalls itself, can't it? If I knew someone who was going down that path I'd worry about it feeling like I'm policing them rather than valuing and supporting them.
Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block of you can
Are you advocating to block loved ones if their mental health is too far gone or am I misreading this?
Good catch, meant to say "don't block if you can" we need them to see our side. I'll update my op.
And to add context, this is a waiting game. I'm hopeful the factions align under progressive libs before cons. We all want a better place, we gotta keep moving forward. Regression is bad mkay
Their more progressive parents should've tried parenting.
The one Canadian MAGA in my family is my younger cousin. He had some rough economic and health times and the latter affected his cognitive ability. I feel really bad for him but he’s a true PP believer even through this.
Dang so sorry to hear, I don't known any vocal PP thumpers around me, but he's just so bland but like not the normal Candian kinda way, like made in a lab way.
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I saw Liberals leading Alberta, which made me do a double take.
Then I read the small print. Yeah, keep your expectations in check it's not that hype.
Other recent polls have put the Liberals in the lead, but not by this much. Time will tell if it's just a bit ahead of the curve or a true outlier.
Better than UCP? Or they don't run federally I guess? Idk much about Alberta
UCP was and no longer is the combination of the old AB Progressive Conservative Party and the alt right party Wildrose. Jason was a shortsighted greedy twit and Wildrose cannibalized his party from within as everyone could've and did predict. It was the only quick way to win an election again after the PC's disgraced themselves with a string of incompetent/corrupt leaders in a row and the ANDP finally won a single term. Unite The Right was the slogan. United Conservative Party. Straight forward naming.
UCP is a provincial party only. They're basically Republicans, and work with Take Back Alberta which are kinda like the Heritage Foundation behind Project 2025 in the USA. They're currently preoccupied with forcing diversity policy out of Edmonton Public Libraries.
Provincial Liberals are irrelevant here because the ANDP is closer to the political alignment of the federal Liberals than the federal NDP, so they're redundant. Federally the Liberals name has been mud in Alberta since Trudeau Sr. and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
edit: ANDP only lost the last election by a couple thousand votes. Notley stepped down, Nenshi won leadership for opposition, the ex mayor of Calgary. Moved party further to center? I guess. That's the speculation, and Nenshi mused about changing the color from Orange to Purple. As in, mix conservative blue with center-left orange.
idk may as well give a better overview.
I support the NDP but I have moved somewhere with little chance of a seat going that way so more than likely I'll go for whichever party shows better chance of beating the conservative candidate.
At this moment in time, this is the way.
The liberal majority in Alberta is shocking. I never thought I'd see the day
From the article:
The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in our parallel Probit survey).
Everything about that sentence makes the statistician in me cry
Take anything Ekos post with a grain of salt please
338 posts updates every Sunday, I'm looking forward to seeing that one
He's an Edmonton kid. Albertans like Albertans. Here's hoping we see this keep climbing.
Wow that’s a HUGE rise. I wonder what other polling firms will show this week.
EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It's also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn't. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see "Handling Trump" as their top priority right now, with "The Economy" in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he's seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump's actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.
Hey, he's not a complete pushover, he put out a tweet (or an X?) confirming he's Canadian. He also changed "America" to "Canada" when he started reusing Trump's exact slogan. /s
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