Canals and trains are still the two of the most important parts of the goods transport network. It's not a good analogy, cities who finished the canals and trains did better.
Fuck AI
"We did it, Patrick! We made a technological breakthrough!"
A place for all those who loathe AI to discuss things, post articles, and ridicule the AI hype. Proud supporter of working people. And proud booer of SXSW 2024.
AI, in this case, refers to LLMs, GPT technology, and anything listed as "AI" meant to increase market valuations.
Ehh, this post just makes me wish they had finished a badass canal network
or kept and expanded on the rail route
They did keep and expand on the rail routes! The US had an awesome rail network, including extensive passenger rail, until roughly the 1950s.
Yup, large automakers bought up a lot of rail lines, especially local inter- and intracities, and tore out the tracks as part of the highway program. My hometown had extensive tram lines (and a halfway built subway that we ran out of money for in the 20s) that got ripped up when I75 got built.
A lot of cities also just did this of their own accord, partially to enforce segregation and redlining. Awful harder for black and brown people to get to your Rich White Neighborhood if there's no train or bus service to easily take them there.
Americans aren't car brained, they're trapped in a system they didn't build and can't control.
A distinction without a difference.
A mouse raised in a cage will be cage-brained.
Too many USAians can't imagine life without driving a car, the same way that mouse can't imagine a forest.
How do you expect someone to imagine life without a car, when they live in an area where you have to drive three miles to get to the nearest store, and there are no sidewalks or bike lanes?
Can you really shame the caged mouse for being unable to imagine a forest?
Who framed Roger rabbit?

Yup, large automakers bought up a lot of rail lines, especially local inter- and intracities, and tore out the tracks as part of the highway program.
Not quite! Railroads were built using land grants, so they'd literally build cities along their lines to sell the real estate they got for free at inflated prices. Privately owned and maintained right of way is unsustainably expensive, so once the land grants ran out railroads had to continuously scramble to find a way to operate profitably. At the second half of the 19th century they began consolidating and building trunk lines for increasingly massive locomotives, in the mid 20th century they began using diesels to further reduce costs and in the late 20th century they found technologies and advanced freight routing techniques to further squeeze costs. Now in the 21st century they haven't yet found the next way to remain profitable so we shall see what they do.
The auto industry spent until about the end of the Great Depression selling farmers and ruralites on cars, partnering with cycling advocacy groups to lobby governments to pave existing public roads (passing the infrastructure cost to the government instead of themselves). Then as they sold more vehicles they turned their customers into their lobbyists through auto clubs like the AAA to encourage better infrastructure for cars in cities, and by the time the Federal Highway Act was passed everyone involved had already grown up with automobiles everywhere on publicly funded roads.
There were a handful of documented instances of the auto industry buying and mismanaging interurban and trolley routes, but trolleys were already on the decline before the auto industry even got their feet under them because they also were built via land grants and real estate speculation the exact same way that railroads were built! This stopped being viable not long after it stopped being viable for the railroads. Trolley services were built to share the streets with pedestrians, cyclists and horse carriages, and the streets were simply not built to separate the incompatible traffic of automobiles and trolleys, so once automobiles outnumbered trolleys the traffic became too much to be able to run reliable trolley service and the death spiral was unstoppable
The final nail in the coffin for rail passenger service was in 1968 when the US Postal Service ended mail contracts with the railroads, daily passenger service to every city ceased to be financially viable. Before that point, railroads would run at least one train a day with an RPO, and if they're already running a crew out there why not also bring some freight and passengers along too?
Then of course in the 1970s the ill-fated Penn Central collapsed in the second largest bankruptcy in US history (and nearly collapsed the entire North American rail system in the process!) which is where Conrail and Amtrak came in, federally owned entities to keep vital rail service operating. Conrail was eventually sold off into what's now CSX and Norfolk Southern and Amtrak remains, constantly kneecapped by competing private interests (like remember that time Amtrak ran profitable freight service? Yeah the private railroads really didn't like being outshined by Amtrak!)
Ok but, why male ~~models~~ train tracks?
Something something forcing a shiny, new technology into places it doesn't belong so that big corporations could profit, disrupting whole communities, and causing massive environmental and health problems. Can't quite put my finger on what the analogy might be, though...
So, not finishing much-hyped projects is a species thing and not just a personal flaw of mine?
Good to know, I think?
We did finish the railways. We just ripped them out when we built the interstates
Totally random and fun fact- Chinatown (the hard boiled detective movie) had a sequel written with the troubled detective investigating a dirty judge who was paid off by the car companies to allow them to buy up and tear out the trolly system in LA in favor of their highway designs. The judge had his own possy who acted as enforcers for the car company as they pushed their scheme to force the colored section of town to sell their land and make way for the highways.
The sequel didn't happen, but the script was rewritten into what we now know as Who Framed Rodger Rabbit?. If you go back and rewatch it knowing that, it all makes so much more sense. The cartoon facade is just the face for the dirty truth of what happened in America in the 1950's, but add in the happy ending of stopping the dirty judge and saving the 'colored' toon town.
I just saw a YouTube video talking about how Who Framed Roger Rabbit and toon Town was an analogy of colored areas. Man, it is fucked how racist we are that we couldn't even talk openly about it less than a lifetime ago.
It's a bit like here in the UK. There used to be a lot more rail tracks but got removed, presumably when cars because common and lorries were capable of carrying large amounts of goods.
It's a huge shame because a lot of places which were connected no longer are. I would love to be able to hop on a train and get to smaller rural areas rather than large towns and cities on a route which heads to London and back.
There is some success though, if anybody is interested then look at Swanage railway. They managed to get everything undone and reconnect to the national network and is now a hotspot for old steam engines.
Well you Britishers gave us Indians a huge ass railway network and we have been expanding it ever since. Only if our politicians and bureaucrats were decent, we would have added higher speed trains and bullets trains to it as well instead of having shitty airlines and dangerous bus rides.
I really should do something with that esp32.
I live right near a canal that was completed in 1832, and it was essential and a massive success.
Many people know the story of Canada (or Britain and its North American colonists) burning down the White House. It wasn't just the White House though, it was a bunch of public buildings in Washington including the White House, the Capitol and the Washington Navy Yard. What people don't know is that this was in retaliation for the Americans burning and looting York (today's Toronto), which was at that point a small town and the capital of the province of Upper Canada. The Americans broke the laws of war when they did that, so there was a temptation to do the same to them in Washington, but cooler heads prevailed and only the public buildings were burned.
After the war of 1812 ended, the British realized how vulnerable Canada was to the Americans. In particular, the only way to ship things from Montreal to the strategically important towns to the west (Kingston, York, etc.) was down the Saint Lawrence seaway, and the Americans controlled the lower bank of that route. As a result, the British decided to build the Rideau Canal, so goods could be shipped from Montreal to Kingston (and then from there onto the Great Lakes) while avoiding the choke points on the St. Lawrence.
The Canal was finished in 1832 and it was a huge success. Not only did it protect Canadian shipping from a possible US attack, it also avoided all the rapids, etc. on the St. Lawrence. For a few decades it was the main way to move goods and people west, allowing for areas to the west of Montreal to be settled. Canada's capital, Ottawa, wouldn't exist if it weren't for the Rideau Canal. Kingston, at the mouth of the Canal gained a lot of economic significance because of the Canal and was a unified Canada's capital from 1841 to 1844. And Toronto was settled by people moving through the Canal, it nearly doubled in size between 1832 and 1834.
By the late 1850s, a railway was built between Bytowne / Ottawa and the St. Lawrence, and this railway was used instead of the canal. But, the demand might not have existed for the railway if people hadn't been able to move west thanks to the canal.
It may be that people saw the success of that canal, and of other important canals, and that there was an overbuilding as a result of that. And, that when the railways came there was a more effective way of doing some of the same things. But, canals were incredibly important for a few decades and shape the world we live in now. So, how dare you compare them to AI datacentres, you jerk.
And despite the canal not being heavily used for shipping anymore, it can provide lots of community value for water sports and winter skating. I don’t know that obsolete data centres will bring us this degree of recreation
When the internet dot com boom happened telecom infrastructure providers were putting more lines into the ground than there was demand for it since they predicted that growth would accelerate. But then the bubble burst and the overcapacity was not used for years aka dark fiber. But then growth picked up again and since there were already lines in the ground the growth on demand wasn’t putting pressure on supply and thus companies could buy bandwidth very cheaply. This will probably happen with all these datacenters when the bubble bursts. The big tech companies will retreat, scale down investments and leave these datacenters underutilized. Either they will sell their assets or rent it out cheaply and thus startups and smaller companies can use the overcapacity at a low cost.
The difference between dark fiber and datacenters is that datacenters need a company with enough revenue to maintain the structure. Most data centers are built like big box stores: super cheaply and not meant to last more than a couple of decades while in active use for their intended purpose. You know that Shopko or K-mart that shut down 5 years ago and is still empty? You see how quickly that building has started falling apart with no company large enough to own the space and maintain it? That's what empty datacenters are going to be like.
Fiber on the other hand is just strands of glass with some material covering it to prevent light leaks and provide strength. As long as that glass is unbroken there is zero maintenance required whether the fiber is in use or not. Fiber also has theoretically infinite bandwidth (they're currently working towards releasing 1.2 terrabit transceivers) and usually when fiber is run they run a big fat cable with dozens of not hundreds of strands of fiber so there's dozens if not hundreds of times the amount of bandwidth of a single pair of strands (and lots of spare strands should a few be broken). Sure old fiber won't be made with the tight tolerances that we have for fiber made today, so you might only get a few gigabit out of a single pair, but that's still a ton of basically free bandwidth just sitting there as dark fiber that you can use to get off the ground then start running your own once you have some cashflow
That and most of the cost of the data centers revolve around the servers and support for those servers ie. Cooling, power racks ect. I've heard it can be cheaper to build a whole new building than bringing one, even currently operating one, up to new specs.
This is also extremely true!
Those AI servers are probably a discounted cost of around 3-5k per U (I'm probably low in this estimate but I have a really hard time believing they're actually paying $20k+ per GPU), probably about 40U per rack is actually loaded with servers, so if we round the footprint of a server rack to 4 square feet (because I don't feel like actually calculating it out right now) that's about $30,000-50,000 per square foot.
I have a hard time imagining any kind of structure costing anywhere near 1 order of magnitude less than the cost per square foot of the servers
Those AI servers are probably a discounted cost of around 3-5k per U (I'm probably low in this estimate but I have a really hard time believing they're actually paying $20k+ per GPU),
They're arranging 72 Blackwell GPUs into each server rack, at around a price of $3 million, in a cabinet that is 2236mm x 600 mm x 1068mm. That's approximately a 7 square foot footprint, so about $430,000 per square foot of server. There's obviously a need for spacing between servers, but you're basically underestimating by an order of magnitude.
Fiber is a super special case as just about the only infrastructure material that can sit in the ground for 20 years unmaintained, and then get connected to state of the art endpoints and work at modern standards.
If only tax money were were funding the datacenters.
We should be TAXING THE DATACENTERS
My closest city is actually filled with 100+ year old buildings that have old pictures of the building in various points in history. Someone went through a lot of trouble about a decade ago to get everyone on board with displaying historical stuff.
There's a road that follows one of the old canals, and a tunnel still technically accessible beneath the main downtown road where deliveries were hauled in order to keep the road up top for PEOPLE to walk on, and carriages were rare until the 1900s.
Then everything changed in the early-mid 1900s and no hint of canals even exists today in the city, other than one road named "canal" and one named "water". But without knowing the history, they're just names.
Moving Goods by water is the most economical way to move them, trains are next, trucks are last, I mean after like wagons and shit. We do things the inefficient way because vested interests make money doing it that way. Good luck trying to be more efficient. It's not going to fucking happen. Not with these fucking clowns in charge. Or the previous clowns that are supposed to be our clowns.
We use trucks because of the "last mile" problem. Ships are the most efficient. But you ain't pulling up a container ship to your front door. Same with trains. Both are great at moving a lot of stuff from one major point to another. But not good at all for local delivery.
Nor are they good for fast delivery of smaller amounts. And y'all want your Amazon shit delivered as fast as possible to your door. Or the arugula and potatoes you will buy at your local grocery for supper tonight. I'm not pumping up trucks, but they make that possible.
Logistics is tiered and integrated every last inch of the way.
Never have I seen so many ships carrying goods in my life than on the ChangJiang, when I lived in Wuhan.
Absolutely mind-blowing. A line of ships going both ways all the way to the horizon, all day, every day. I can't even fathom the quantities being carried.
I mean, they'll be great places to provide free housing to the homeless.
Err, no. ICE will probably just hollow them out and turn them into concentration camps.
Guess it depends which way the pendulum swings.
Datacenter buildings aren't suitable to be homes. Warehouses maybe, factories with some adjustment.
I'm thinking data centres might be like landlines. For a while they were the only option, but then mobiles came along.
In today's context, the mobile is analogous to a fast home computer that can run AI locally.
We might end up with more telephone exchanges than we need.
(for the international audience, mobile = cell phone / handy; landline = inland phone, PSTN.)
Similar analogy can apply to trains etc.
My ideal scenario:
- As technology improves, it becomes increasingly easy to run AI locally at home.
- The hardware companies/data center AI companies eventually fuck each other over because big corporations always fuck everyone else over eventually and it stops becoming profitable.
- NVIDIA etc. come crawling back to the consumer market, offering things at reasonable prices again. Data centers sell off all their shit and absolutely flood the market with cheap RAM & graphics cards.
- Some other company has started making the hardware in the meantime and the public tells NVIDIA to go fuck themselves and we watch them go into a slow IBM style decline.
Although what will probably happen is the companies will fuck each other over, prices will stay high forever and the data centers that go out of business will just burn all their hardware and all of this will have meant nothing.
I agree with almost all of this, however, much of the RAM during data centre selloffs would be in the SOCAMM format, so not useful for anything consumer nor anything older than a couple years in the enterprise space. If there is such an influx however, I suspect that SOCAMM might become a new format for consumer and enterprise electronics after some time. Other than that, there would also be standard DDR5 DIMMs.
irony: its posted on threads :o
Oh, that's great! Because when the DATA centres grind to a halt, you can send all the contruction workers and civil engineers to finish up your canal projects!

I grew up on the Wabash/Erie canal. It was finished and brought a load of commerce to the region. This is not a post about data centers.